The provisional vote totals leaked to press and governments, are bad news for President Gbagbo.

Even wire reports are saying that the vote totals are confirmed, with Alassane Ouattara (representing both the conservative parties heir to Félix Houphouët-Boigny and the marginalized Muslim north) taking between 53% and 55% of the total vote. It seems this is a further lesson, if one is needed, of the inability of governments to contain bad news in the internet age.

A PDF floating around, supposedly a scan of the electoral commission totals, is making the rounds of Ivorian government offices and foreign capitals.

There’s no way of confirming this yet. There’s no meta info in the file, but it shows reasonable totals by Region and Departement (with a margin of error column to the right cut off, suggesting it is the provisional result). It seems to be a report generated from an Excel spreadsheet, as it has the distinctive Excel “division by zero” error code of “#DIV/0!” in a couple of places. There are no seals.

The results, if even close, are damning: 55.01% to ADO for 44.99% Gbagbo (the 100% suggests either completeness or falseness). In some places in the north, ADO is shown with over 80%, even over 90% of some Departements. If Gbagbo’s strategy is to contest northern results, he will have to win MANY disputed stations to make up for ADO’s competitive results elsewhere.

As with so many elections in West Africa, the ruling President Laurent Gbagbo‘s closest supporters seem determined to win at all costs. The latest rumors go that those around Gbagbo, unwilling either to give up their lucrative positions, or fearing investigation into their past dealings, are pushing for a state of emergency, declarable by the President under Article 48 of the 2000 Constitution.

Art. 48. Lorsque les Institutions de la République, l’indépendance de la Nation, l’intégrité de son territoire ou l’exécution de ses engagements internationaux sont menacées d’une manière grave et immédiate, et que le fonctionnement régulier des pouvoirs publics constitutionnels est interrompu, le Président de la République prend les mesures exceptionnelles exigées par ces circonstances après consultation obligatoire du Président de l’Assemblée nationale et de celui du Conseil constitutionnel. Il en informe la Nation par message. L’Assemblée nationale se réunit de plein droit.

Of course there is no grave and immediate threat to the Nation, Institutions of the Republic, territorial integrity, or international obligations. At least not one that has developed in the last few days or months. State TV (RTI) is reportedly been running interviews (on a 24/7 loop) with Gbagbo supporters in the north who claim grave irregularities in the areas controlled by the New Forces rebel movement of the Prime Minister. That these troops were disarmed or integrated into government forces prior to the election (at least according to the government) is one point which doesn’t ring true. That international observers are not reporting any systemic abuse at northern voting stations is another.

Gbagbo’s supporters disrupted an attempt to read provisional results by the CEI voting commission on 11/30. Today (12/1) is the last day votes may legally be chalenged, so the window of legality is closing. Time is another enemy of Gbagbo’s supporters.

Finally, the internationally community is not their friend. The UN mission there has certified the election as fair, and called on the results to be released immediately. The EU, France, The US, and a variety of foreign observers have as well. Reports are that these nations, with the help of the Burkinabe Embassy, are negotiating a climb down.

What is frightening is that Gbagbo’s cronies are the ones with the least to lose from pushing the nation back into civil war. The President is missing his chance to either retire as a statesman or head the opposition, and his exile or prosecution by the next government becomes more likely the more he resists. But the influential business people allegedly grouped around his wife, parliamentary leader Simone Ehivet Gbagbo have more to lose from allowing him to retire. Prosecutions will likely follow in the coming years, and their resources will surely dry up. Simone has already come under suspicion in the events surrounding the 2004 death of French-Canadian journalist Guy-André Kieffer, who disappeared while investigating cocoa industry corruption. The paramilitary forces of ultra nationalist thugs like Charles Blé Goudé may find a future without Gbagbo’s protection rather dangerous.

Purported Results of the Second Round

• Generally very good Wikipedia background on the 2010 election : English & French

Related articles

• UPDATE 1-Ivorian cocoa exporters shut down ahead of poll result (af.reuters.com)
• NEWSMAKER-Gbagbo plays nationalist card for Ivorian run-off (af.reuters.com)
• FACTBOX-Key political risks to watch in Ivory Coast (af.reuters.com)
• Laurent Gbagbo: “I’m here, I’m staying” | African news, analysis and opinion – The Africa Report.com (theafricareport.com)
• UPDATE 1-Poll scores delayed in Ivory Coast, security tight (af.reuters.com)
• Pressure grows on Ivory Coast to issue poll result (af.reuters.com)

In reading about the worrying and hopefully shortlived chaos attending the results of the Cote d’Ivoire elections, I was pleasantly surprised to see a photo of mine used for Radio France International’s article on Ivorian electoral history. Name’s spelled wrong in the mandatory Creative Common’s attribution, but their heart was in the right place (I’m sure).

Related articles

• RT @CrisisGroup: West African Elections: There’s too Much at Stake.: By a coincidence of delayed timetables, neighbouring West Afri… h … (crisisgroup.org)
• Carter Center to Observe Historic Cote d’Ivoire and Guinea Elections Back-To-Back ” Carter Center Blog – Latest Carter Center Peace, Health Blog Posts (cartercenter.org)

In case you’ve been under a rock for the last few hours, Ireland were dumped out of the 2010 World Cup by France, who needed a 2-1 aggregate result to get past the Irish.  They got it on a ball that was handled twice by previously believed to be classy French fella, Theirry Henry.

I still can’t get over this. I always liked Henry, despite the clubs he played for. But that was just wrong, even if I were a neutral observer. Clearly cupping his hand, paddling the ball (heading out) to Gallas who knocks it into the net. Really criminal. I hope France draw Cote d’Ivoire in the WC and get stuffed the way Senegal did them last time.

Former Ireland, Celtic, and L’OM great Tony Cascarino penned a subtle piece  of level headed journalism entitled “Thierry Henry is an insincere cheat who has tarnished his reputation for good”

I’ve always loved Tony, and he’s a bit upset here (as you can imagine). “I’m no angel, but I know that I wouldn’t have done what he did. And if the roles had been reversed and Ireland had reached South Africa in such a dubious way, would I have been delighted at victory? Of course. Would I have felt it was tainted? Absolutely. … I’m gutted for Ireland and for football. ”

Mary Hannigan writes: “Lest we forget, Ireland reached these play-offs by finishing second to reigning world champions Italy in their qualifying group, unbeaten in their 10 games, before having to get the better of the 1998 World Cup winners over two legs. A daunting route, it was, to South Africa, the journey ending short of its destination last night.” But wouldn’t trade for this result if I had to live out the rest of my life as Thierry Henry.

Related articles

• Controversial goal breaks Irish hearts (news.bbc.co.uk)